I'm really learning this more, each and every day. The only big advantage that the books have over us is our own nature to be self-destructive and beat ourselves. If you are knowledgeable about sports, and specialize in one or two, all you have to do is flat bet and pick your spots, and you will win at this game. Occasionally, I will double my bet if I really like the game, but 5 times your bet size is never a good idea. I learned that the hard way. I had a terrible end to my college basketball season last year, and it carried over to college football this year. Bad money management. And I have realized that anything can and does happen in the world of sports. SIU and Illinois both lost to bad teams at home in the same week. The odds of that, according to the moneylines, were over 400-1. And it happened. I didn't have wagers on those moneylines, or anything stupid like that, but I never dreamed it could happen, and I'm still shocked. The books don't really fear players, because they know that 95% of them will beat themselves by poor money management, even though a lot of them can pick winners. I've got a lot of friends that don't bet that tell me that could go 65% "easily" if they got into it. I remember thinking the same thing, that I could kill sportsbetting before I started betting. Once I started wagering, I realized that it is much harder than I thought. But, what I've also realized is that it isn't hard to get an edge on the books, if you pick your spots, don't bet very many games, and never go crazy on one pick. We all have that human weakness of greed, and if we don't allow it to surface, we can win this game. I don't know anyone that has been disciplined from day one in sports wagering. It goes against our nature. It almost takes going through bad money management to learn from your mistakes and resolve to never let it happen again. I know I have. I will never again place a wager where it's not okay to lose, and I'm guaranteed to win over the long run because of it. If any of you new bettors have not yet experienced the pain of losing more than you should, don't let it happen. Discipline. Most don't have it, but if you can have it, or learn to have it, you will be a winning bettor.
very well spoken...never ever,ever, make a bet you can't afford to lose....if it is going to put one's self in a bind...find a new hobby or way to make a living...i've seen this way too many times living here in vegas...people betting their car payments and the such on one hand of blackjack and stupid shit like that...pick your spots...manage your money and never bet more than you can afford to lose....very well said there illini....how's the new job...by the way...jeffksu
Just curious what you think when it is time to take some cash off the table?
I understand most views on money management and increasing units according to bankroll but when do you start to take some money off the table. I'm sure it is a personal thing based on goals but do you leave the money grow in the account or take out a withdrawl and some point?
I understand most views on money management and increasing units according to bankroll but when do you start to take some money off the table. I'm sure it is a personal thing based on goals but do you leave the money grow in the account or take out a withdrawl and some point?
Illini, That may be the best post I have ever read at this forum. Human nature is the only advantage the books have over the players. There are people that could hit 80% and still be in the poor house. I use to treat sportbetting like it was the lottery. I got tired of reuping all the time and finnally used smart MM. Its been great ever since.
When I meet new people in Vegas, and I ask them if they bet sports, almost everyone of them replies, "unfortunately, I do," "no," or "I used to." Nobody says, "yes, I love it." That's no coincidence. The human tendencies are what beats them. A new bettor has almost no chance to win in the long run, unless they fully realize the their destructive nature beforehand.
CHOPTALK said:
It was a great post, but human nature isn't the only way they have the edge. The biggest edge they have is people bet on sports for fun and most know it is something they won't win. It may take them a little bit of time to realize it, but I think if you did a little survey in the books you would find most people will tell you they know they house always wins and the betting they do is for entertainment only.
As for taking money off the table, I would say as much as you can get away with it, never do it. I mean someday you will take money off the table, but it is sort of like buying houses. You buy what you can afford the payment on today and build equity until it is time to buy the next house. At that point your equity and your salary can afford a more expensive house so you buy into that one. In betting you start out betting what your bankroll can handle and you build equity with winners. Eventually your proven skills and your increased bankroll can handle bigger units so you move up. Over time you do this until it gets time to downsize and cash out. If you did the housing plan right you are at retirement age and your equity has built up to all or nearly all the value of a much more valuable home than what you started with. If you bet sports and made enough income from other sources so you never had to tap your bankroll, you will be sitting pretty whenever you decide it is time to take some money off the table. Just know that if you take it off the table today and then go back to betting another 20 years, you will cost yourself a small fortune so don't do it too soon.
If you sustained yourself without equity withdrawals over time and you will have a large lump sum to benefit from, whether it was from homes or sports betting.
I think that was a nice written post but only agree with some of it. Thier is alot of things to becoming a winner. I can tell you this past baseball season I was DISCIPLINED to a tee and shopped for the best lines,had 4 different outs, bet no big favorites and never changed my bet size or took one day off and followed the same procedures I had used succesfully in the past and I LOST!!!! Sometimes you can do every little thing right but you still must find value and have knowledge over the public to pick more winners than losers, to come ahead.
The botttom line is MOST people that visit this forum are trying their hardest to follow the rules and guidelines set by the sharps and most people here understand them, but sometimes it boils down to beating the vig and that is harder than most people realize.
The botttom line is MOST people that visit this forum are trying their hardest to follow the rules and guidelines set by the sharps and most people here understand them, but sometimes it boils down to beating the vig and that is harder than most people realize.
Good Luck Illini, most of what you said is well understood by people that have done this for a while. Plenty of advantage betting available out there. If you press the issue you loose your advantage. My favorite quote is from an old gambler who said " The flag get raised every day, be there to salute it". That meaning if you bet advatage ball you will when in the long run, don't bust out before that can happen.
Kornholio said:I don't know man getting every bet at +110 sounds like an advantage to me
And Illini- we sold the house gotta be out in a month.
You can go to the exchanges and get +vig on every single play if your smart. You can hit 50% and make a profit.
Illini said:
Illini, my young and wise adopted son, what a GREAT post. Money Management is an area that I could use a little more discipline. As for winners, I have been pretty consistent over the years. You young guys have an advantage that older guys never had. By that I mean that there is way more info out there that was not available 30 years ago. We older guys learned lessons by trial and error.I say that I have a Ph D in this endeavor that probably cost more than an academic Ph D. Sites like the RX with the exchanging of info from all regions of the country is a HUGE plus. Reduced juice and early wagering instead of the day of the game in a lot of places. Still, there is nothing like experience. You can usually tell by the plays that someone new is posting if that person will be a winning capper. As for my personal MM style I am of the belief that all plays are NOT worth the same. The Rubberband Games are worth 2 to 4 times my normal play. I will say that the stress is higher on these games and not only the money consideration. It is an awesome responsibility to know that someone bets REAL money on your opinion. I do not take that responsibility lightly. Todays "Sports Investor" has so many more edges, that if used wisely, has a much better chance to be successful than
previous generations of players. I LOVE the RX and what it means for the sharing of info and experiences for young and old alike!
arty: LT
ALL of these posts had something of value except Everyone left out One very important thing. What about playing a STREAK? This is where the REAL money is made in sports gambling. And knowing when the STREAK is over.
Now think about a guy that flat bets Everygame like one of these post and gets beat at the end.
Now think about the Streak that ACE ACE going something like 29-2 or some astronimcal figure such as that.
What if a player would have started moveing up the units like playing Blackjack or Craps, that Streak would have busted many local bookmakers if they would have let you play high enough in the end.
Baseball teams go through streaks Every year the game has been played, and will continue till the world comes to an end. I play lots of baseball dogs just to get the plus money when they are on the road an sometimes, well most times miss those streaks that go on when they get back home as they are too chalky for my taste buds. But the real question here in my post is. What If A Player Pressed INTO those streaks?
Now think about a guy that flat bets Everygame like one of these post and gets beat at the end.
Now think about the Streak that ACE ACE going something like 29-2 or some astronimcal figure such as that.
What if a player would have started moveing up the units like playing Blackjack or Craps, that Streak would have busted many local bookmakers if they would have let you play high enough in the end.
Baseball teams go through streaks Every year the game has been played, and will continue till the world comes to an end. I play lots of baseball dogs just to get the plus money when they are on the road an sometimes, well most times miss those streaks that go on when they get back home as they are too chalky for my taste buds. But the real question here in my post is. What If A Player Pressed INTO those streaks?
Coach LT said:Illini, my young and wise adopted son, what a GREAT post. Money Management is an area that I could use a little more discipline. As for winners, I have been pretty consistent over the years. You young guys have an advantage that older guys never had. By that I mean that there is way more info out there that was not available 30 years ago. We older guys learned lessons by trial and error.I say that I have a Ph D in this endeavor that probably cost more than an academic Ph D. Sites like the RX with the exchanging of info from all regions of the country is a HUGE plus. Reduced juice and early wagering instead of the day of the game in a lot of places. Still, there is nothing like experience. You can usually tell by the plays that someone new is posting if that person will be a winning capper. As for my personal MM style I am of the belief that all plays are NOT worth the same. The Rubberband Games are worth 2 to 4 times my normal play. I will say that the stress is higher on these games and not only the money consideration. It is an awesome responsibility to know that someone bets REAL money on your opinion. I do not take that responsibility lightly. Todays "Sports Investor" has so many more edges, that if used wisely, has a much better chance to be successful than
VERY WELL SAID BRO!!
This is one of the most informative posts that I have seen here. I am just starting to learn more about money management, and starting to do it every day more and more...
The most I have learned from my short career of betting(3 years...short compared to some people)...
There are always games on tomorrow.
Dont chase.
Pick your spots.
dont believe anything is a lock or gaurentee.
The most I have learned from my short career of betting(3 years...short compared to some people)...
There are always games on tomorrow.
Dont chase.
Pick your spots.
dont believe anything is a lock or gaurentee.
And if you get down or need to step back and reset to keep yourself from going on tilt, you can always play all the great contests you find here on therx and around other forums. It is a good way to feed that gambling urge without actually laying down any money. And if you are lucky, you can actually make some money to start again. Just my two cents.
Duder
Duder
